If you are a returning reader and not a subscriber, I’m going to need you to smash this “subscribe now” button below. If this is your 1st time reading my work, welcome! I hope you become a subscriber soon.
There are 2 things that Casey Thompson has in common with owls. Thompson transferred from Nebraska to FAU this off-season, making him an owl. Owls have feathers that help them fly almost silently. This helps them with hunting. With no current ADP in C2C leagues and an ADP of 176 for CFF leagues, Thompson is the silent QB predator you need in 2023.
FAU hired Tom Herman for the 2023 season. Let’s follow Herman’s coaching journey. In 2005-2006, he was the OC for David Bailiff and Texas State. Bailiff left for Rice in 2007 and brought Herman with him. Tom spent 2007-2008 with Rice. In 2009-2011, Herman was the OC for the Cyclones, under Paul Rhoads. In 2012, Urban Meyer hired Herman as the OC. He was with Ohio State from 2012-2014. In 2015, Herman got his first HC position with Houston. He coached there till 2017, before leaving for Texas. Herman would continue coaching at Texas till 2020. He left for the Chicago Bears in 2021, to be an Offensive Analyst.
Luke, you are about SYSTEMS, aren’t you? Tell me what I need to know.
Tom Herman seems to move schools every 2-3 years, so we need to look at things more holistically. A Tom Herman QB, over the last 16 years, has averaged the following stat line: 2740.31 yards passing, 22.13 TDs, 9.44 INTs, and 661.13 yards rushing and 9.13 TDs on the ground. That is good for 29.31ppg, in leagues with 6pts passing TDs. Please note in 2011 and 2017, he utilized a 2 QB system. In 2011, at ISU, it was Steel Jantz and Jared Barnett. In 2017, at Texas, it was Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele.
Moral of the story is that Herman likes to have a rushing QB. Who is the FAU QB, Luke? We can usually glean some information from the spring game. Daniel Richardson was the talk of the offense. He ended the day going 18/22, 238 yards passing and 3 TDs. Daniel Richardson was a 247 composite 3 star DUAL QB. Wait, did you say DUAL?!?! Yes, I did. Herman took the job at FAU on December 1, 2022. Richardson transferred in on January 7, 2023 from Central Michigan. Richardson is the guy, right? WRONG!
After the spring game, another QB transfers in. Not only is this another QB to compete with Richardson, but Herman secured the QB he originally recruited for the Longhorns in 2018, Casey Thompson. According to 247, Thompson was a composite 4 star and the 14th best dual QB. Wait, did you say DUAL?!?!
Pardon me while I do some logic math. There is a new head coach who wants to have a running QB. He brings in Daniel Richardson, and Richardson has a pretty good spring game. After the spring, Herman brought in a QB HE recruited and coached in 2018. This series of events tells me Herman wants Casey Thompson to be the starting QB. Every team needs depth at QB, and I believe that depth is named Daniel Richardson.
Casey Thompson will either lead his team in rushing yards or be 2nd on the team. 16 years of Tom Herman data tells me his QB will average ~29.31 fantasy ppg in 6pt passing TD leagues. For reference, in 2022 Michael Penix Jr. averaged 30.22ppg, Jalon Daniels averaged 29.61ppg, Dillon Gabriel averaged 27.89ppg, and (this year's hot name) Jordan Travis averaged 26.88ppg. You could grab them with CFF ADPs of: 9.7, 104.7, 60.3, and 28.3 respectively. Or you can take Casey Thompson at an CFF ADP of 176. Thompson should be a QB on your radar in CFF and C2C leagues. In general, Tom Herman QBs need to be on your radar going forward.